NDC Must Be Worried About Prof. Smart Sarpong’s Research

by Mohammed Amin · November 22, 2024

The Supporters of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) have expressed doubts over the credibility of Prof. Smart Sarpong’s latest research findings for Ghana’s 2024 elections arguing that he is a staunch NPP member and as a result, his polls cannot be trusted. However, a closer look at his track record demonstrates why the party should take his findings seriously. Prof. Sarpong has repeatedly showcased his expertise in election research, delivering predictions that closely matched actual results in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Proven Accuracy in Previous Elections

2016 Elections: Prof. Sarpong’s predictions for the 2016 general elections accurately projected a victory for the New Patriotic Party (NPP). His methodology included large sample sizes and regional breakdowns, clearly showing voter preferences. The eventual result validated his research approach, solidifying his reputation as a credible pollster.
2020 Elections: His research in 2020 forecasted a first-round victory for the NPP with 51.4%, a figure remarkably close to the outcome where the NPP’s Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo secured 51.3% of the vote. This accuracy highlights his ability to gauge voter sentiment scientifically.

Scientific Methodology

Prof. Sarpong uses robust statistical techniques, including adequate sample sizes, diverse regional representation, and adherence to the principles of the Central Limit Theorem and statistical regularity. His 2024 survey sampled over 99,000 respondents across all constituencies, ensuring representativeness and minimizing sampling errors. He employs face-to-face interviews to enhance data quality by capturing contextual nuances like body language and environmental factors.

Implications for 2024

The current research indicates that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia leads with 49.1%, while John Mahama follows with 45.8%. While the NDC questions the findings, the consistency of Prof. Sarpong’s predictions over multiple election cycles suggests that these figures cannot be dismissed outright. His data-driven approach also provides actionable insights into voter behavior, which political parties can leverage for strategic adjustments.

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Why the NDC Should Be Concerned

Prof. Sarpong’s findings point to regional shifts that could disadvantage the NDC. For instance, reduced dominance in traditional strongholds like the Volta Region and growing NPP support in Northern regions signal to change in voter dynamics. His ability to anticipate such trends makes his research indispensable for strategizing.

By dismissing Prof. Sarpong’s research, the NDC risks overlooking critical insights that could shape their campaign strategies. Instead, they should analyze his findings to address voter concerns effectively and improve their competitiveness in the upcoming elections.

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