Bawumia Leads Latest Research with 49.1% Ahead of Mahama

Accra, Ghana – November 21, 2024
The latest election research by Professor Smart Sarpong, Director of Research and Innovation at Kumasi Technical University, reveals Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is in pole position for Ghana’s 2024 presidential elections. With 49.1% of respondents endorsing him, he maintains a significant lead over former President John Dramani Mahama, who garnered 45.8%. This groundbreaking research was based on responses from 99,355 participants across all 276 constituencies in Ghana.

Presidential Race Overview

As the country gears up for elections, the survey reveals a first-round victory is achievable by only one of the two major parties, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC). While Bawumia holds a commanding lead with 59.1%, Mahama trails closely at 45.8%. Other candidates, including independent contenders, account for a combined 2.3%.

Regional Influence

• NPP Strongholds: Bawumia’s performance is heavily bolstered by dominant support in the Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western regions.
• NDC Strongholds: Mahama leads in Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savanna, Upper East, Upper West, Volta, and Western North regions.

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These dynamics reflect a clear regional split, underscoring the importance of targeted campaigns in the next two weeks leading to the December 7th elections.

Parliamentary Projections

In the parliamentary race, the NPP is projected to secure at least 148 seats, retaining their majority. The research identifies 128 safe seats for the NPP and 92 for the NDC, with 56 constituencies considered battlegrounds. Neither of the six competitive independent candidates from constituencies such as Sunyani East and La-Dade Kotopong is expected to win.

Key Insights and Recommendations

Professor Sarpong emphasizes the need for political parties to consolidate their gains in key regions and avoid complacency. He notes that active party agents and supporters could secure a decisive one-touch victory for their respective candidates.

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Furthermore, the study reaffirms the scientific nature of electioneering and highlights the importance of data-driven strategies in modern political campaigns.

Methodology

The research involved face-to-face interviews using Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) tools. The sample size of 99,355 ensures robust representation across Ghana’s diverse demographic and cultural landscape. Data collection spanned from October 14 to November 17, 2024, with GPS verification and community-level enumeration enhancing data accuracy.

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Conclusion

As Ghana approaches the critical 2024 elections, this research underscores a pivotal moment in its democratic journey. With Dr. Bawumia holding a strong lead, the next few weeks will determine whether the NPP can secure a first-round victory or the contest moves to a runoff.

For more details and constituency-level analysis, stakeholders can contact Professor Smart Sarpong at sarpongbest@gmail.com.

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