Manasseh Azure: Analyzing the Odds of Bawumia’s Victory

In a thought-provoking Facebook post, renowned journalist Manasseh Azure Awuni dissected the prospects of Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and the New Patriotic Party (NPP) ahead of Ghana’s 2024 presidential election. With an election poised to test the resilience of Ghana’s democracy, Manasseh outlined both the strengths and weaknesses of Bawumia’s candidacy while exploring the potential implications of a victory for the ruling party.

Transparency and the Rigging Myth

Manasseh began by addressing the skepticism from some quarters, particularly among the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), about the possibility of a free and fair election. He dismissed claims that the NPP could only win by rigging, emphasizing Ghana’s robust electoral system. Having served as a polling assistant and covered multiple elections, Manasseh noted that rigging at a scale significant enough to alter results would require gross negligence from opposition agents or collusion. He underscored that vigilance remains key to ensuring electoral integrity.

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The Strengths of Bawumia and the NPP

Manasseh identified six critical factors that could work in favor of Bawumia and the NPP:

1. Hard Work: Dr. Bawumia’s relentless campaign efforts have set him apart as a committed candidate. Manasseh likened this attribute to the work ethic of legendary athletes, suggesting that diligence often pays off in unexpected ways.
2. Free SHS: The government’s flagship Free Senior High School policy stands as one of its most tangible successes. Despite other unfulfilled promises, Free SHS has left a lasting impact on rural communities, potentially boosting voter goodwill.
3. Modesty and Humility: Bawumia’s modest campaign style, including the use of a bus, contrasts with the ostentatious displays often associated with incumbents. His humility has endeared him to voters.
4. Incumbency Advantage: As the sitting government’s candidate, Bawumia benefits from access to resources, endorsements, and state machinery that could bolster his campaign.
5. A Fresh Face: Unlike his opponent, John Mahama, Bawumia has not previously served as president. This “freshness” allows voters to project hope onto his candidacy.
6. The “First” Factor: As the first Muslim and non-Twi-speaking Akan to lead the NPP, Bawumia’s candidacy carries symbolic significance, even if its electoral impact is limited.

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Implications of a Bawumia Victory

Manasseh concluded with a sobering analysis of what a Bawumia victory might mean for Ghana. He argued that rewarding the NPP with another term despite its perceived failures could entrench political impunity. While Bawumia might strive to distinguish his presidency from Akufo-Addo’s, the circumstances surrounding his potential victory could weaken accountability and democracy.

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Drawing from his book The President Ghana Never Got, Manasseh expressed doubts about the likelihood of significant reforms under a Bawumia administration. He suggested that the odds of justice and accountability might improve under an NDC-led government, despite its shortcomings.

Conclusion

As Ghanaians head to the polls, Manasseh’s analysis serves as a vital lens through which to examine the stakes of this election. Whether Bawumia’s hard work and policy successes can outweigh the weight of economic challenges and governance failures remains to be seen. The verdict of the people will undoubtedly shape Ghana’s democratic trajectory for years to come.

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